Promising Outlook for Normal Monsoon in India in 2024
16 February 2024, New Delhi: India is currently experiencing an El Niño period, but there are indications of a potential transition towards La Niña in the upcoming months. This transition could have significant implications for India’s monsoon season and agricultural productivity.
El Niño to La Niña Transition
According to weather experts, the present El Niño conditions are expected to settle off and become neutral in the coming months. Favorable conditions suggest a probability of 79% for the persistent El Niño conditions to change to ENSO-Neutral by April–June. Moreover, there is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions developing in the Pacific by June–August after the shift to ENSO-Neutral.
Impact on Monsoon and Agricultural Productivity
One of the most significant effects of La Niña on India is its influence on the monsoon. A shift to La Niña may prove advantageous for crops that rely on adequate rainfall. This transition has the potential to improve soil moisture levels and enhance crop yields, ultimately boosting agricultural productivity.
Monsoon Forecast for 2024
The monsoon forecast for the upcoming months of March to June 2024 presents notable variations in rainfall patterns across different regions of India compared to historical data. Let’s take a closer look at the forecasted precipitation trends during this period:
Forecast for March-May 2024
During this period, there is a chance of departure from usual rainfall by about -40% in East Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh compared to normal. This reduction in rainfall could be beneficial for certain crops, particularly spices.
Forecast for April-June 2024
The pre-monsoon season is expected to be relatively dry, specifically in areas of South Western Gujarat, North Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Coastal Odisha, and Coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Forecast for May-July 2024
For the onset of the monsoon in Southern India, there is a positive trend for the weakening El Niño. This suggests the arrival of the monsoon in the southern region, which is crucial for agricultural activities.
The potential transition from El Niño to La Niña in 2024 brings hope for a normal monsoon season in India. The shift to La Niña conditions can positively impact agricultural productivity by improving soil moisture levels and enhancing crop yields. Farmers in regions affected by the projected rainfall patterns should consider these forecasts and plan their agricultural activities accordingly. As we move forward, it is essential to monitor the progression of weather patterns and stay updated with the latest forecasts to make informed decisions in the agricultural sector.
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