31 January 2020, Noida, IN: Skymet has forecasted normal monsoon for the year 2021 with some exceptions. Monsoon is the largest and most challenging seasonal weather phenomenon.
There are precursors to get an early glimpse and gauge its health during the four-month-long season. Last year Monsoon was driven by La Niña which is peaking right now. It will decline during the ‘spring’ and turn neutral later through the Monsoon season. It also means that Monsoon 2021 is going to be a devolving La Niña to start with. This trend of Pacific Ocean temperatures may not lead to an above normal or excess rainfall, but chances of a disfigured Monsoon are also ruled out so far.
There is sufficient cooling in the Pacific Ocean now and La Niña conditions are at the peak. The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Niña will fall. This will reduce to about 50% when the Monsoon arrives. This could be one of the ‘normal’ Monsoon years making a sound start and ending within the upper half of normal range, range of normal rainfall is 96-104% of LPA (880.6mm). Initial readings are indicative of some risk attached to few pockets.
However, ENSO is wielding a spike which needs to be ascertained with the model forecast in February and March. This will get factored in our April forecast. IOD events are typically unable to form till April, but the early indications suggest it to be neutral at the commencement of Monsoon”. – Jatin Singh, Managing Director & Founder, Skymet Weather Services Private Limited.
Skymet has been predicting Monsoon since 2012 and is committed to release report on prospects of Monsoon 2021 soon. Due to strategic reasons and judicious deliberations, Skymet did not share its Monsoon report of 2020.
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