29 March 2022, US: What U.S. Farmers are planting is always a significant driver of agricultural markets. And with current global volatility, planting intentions for 2022 are likely to be more closely followed than usual. The FBN® Plantings Report provides one of the first major survey-based estimates of U.S. farmers’ planting intentions for the year.
During March 2022, an electronic survey was distributed to U.S. FBN members. The survey collected the respondent’s zip code as well as planted acreage for key crops for the year 2021 and what they intend to plant in 2022.
Survey responses accounted for over 4.2 million acres covering 10 principal crops across 40 states. Any survey data that was incomplete or inconsistent was removed.
There were several goals of the survey but most importantly, we want to deliver on the FBN promise of putting farmers first.
That means enriching all the survey responses with analytics and data science to return insights back to our Members, helping them make knowledgeable decisions that drive an ROI focused business.
We remove all personal and operational related details from survey responses. And the resulting data is maintained as confidential and exclusive to FBN.
The report was bullish on the corn crop. It projects that U.S. corn acreage will be at 91.1 million acres, a 2.3 million acre decline from last year.
North Dakota is expected to see the biggest dip in corn acres among states. If FBN’s projection is accurate, this lower amount of corn production could further push corn prices higher.
“The potential loss of Ukraine as a major corn exporter opens the door for a record setting US corn export program,” Chief Economist, Kevin McNew writes.
FBN‘s report is neutral on soybeans, with acreage pegged at 89 million acres for 2022, up 1.8 million from the year before. Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and North Dakota all are expected to see expanded soybean acres, while Minnesota should see a decline.
Industry expectations are for 88.9 million of soybean acres to be planted, closely aligned with FBN projections.
“Brazil crop losses will give US soy a competitive advantage for trade heading into the 2022 crop year, while new and expanded US soy crush facilities will help feed the renewable diesel demand curve and keep soy crush disappearance reaching new highs,” the report notes.
The report has a bullish outlook on spring wheat. Although spring wheat prices are high, fertilizer cost inflation and competing strong prices for barley, pulses, and soybeans likely will push farmers in the Northern Plains to cut back on spring wheat acres – with FBN expecting a drop off of 200,000 acres, to 11.2 million projected in 2022.
Given that industry analysts are projecting higher acreage (11.8 million), if FBN‘s report proves correct, that could help push wheat prices above recent highs.