15 August 2022, US: The 2022 growing season has seen U.S. farmers facing many critical challenges with late planting, record-setting heat, persistent drought and regionalized flooding. The result has led to sub-par growing conditions in many key growing regions.
USDA will release their first survey on U.S. corn and soybean yield potential in their Crop Production report on August 12, 2022.
Since 2019, FBN® has been closely monitoring state and county corn and soybean yield forecasts. And with the USDA set to release their first survey on U.S. corn and soybean yield potential, what does FBN forecast?
FBN’s forecast for corn and soybean yield potential
According to a survey of analysts, on average they expect the U.S. corn yield to be 175.9 bushels per acre, and soybeans are pegged at 51.1 bushels per acre. (1) In 2021, U.S. corn yields were record high at 177.0 bushels per acre, and the U.S. soybean yield in 2021 was 51.4.
For the 2022 crop cycle, FBN’s corn and soybean yield forecasts have been declining in tandem with deteriorating crop conditions as reported by USDA. (2)
Drought and extreme heat have been a persistent problem over the Southern and Central Plains this growing season, and at times brought unfavorable growing conditions into Western Iowa, Eastern South Dakota and Southern Minnesota.
Weather forecasts for the balance of August show heat and dryness likely to remain, which will challenge crop yield potential in these key growing areas.
What this means for the crop year
The margin of error for corn and soybean yield forecasts should decline among firms as harvest season approaches.
This has been a crop year that continues to have problems pop up – hot and dry weather, significantly delayed planting, localized flooding. Regardless of USDA’s Friday yields, we expect the final corn yield to fall short of the current expectations by the market.
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