09 September 2022, US: The USDA released their most recent Crop Production report on August 12, 2022, based on initial survey-based U.S. corn and soybean yields. Their results forecast U.S. corn yield to be 175.4 bushels and 51.9 bushels for soybeans (1).
However, based on futures values and some trade estimates, market sentiment is that the USDA’s August corn yield estimate is too large.
FBN®’s model-based yield forecast for U.S. corn and soybeans published in August was at a more conservative 170.0 bushels for corn and 50.7 for soybeans. Yields in Iowa and Nebraska are expected to be significantly below the strong yields seen in 2021.
Ahead of the USDA’s next report, which will be released on September 12, 2022, FBN is once again looking at its own models to forecast corn and soybean yield.
Will yield increase or decrease compared to last month’s estimations? Click here to unlock the FBN Research team’s predictions in our latest report, free for FBN members. [Not an FBN member yet? Click the link and create a new member account to access the report.]
FBN Yield Forecasting
FBN has produced corn and soybean yield forecasts at the national, state and county levels since 2019. Having seen success in predicting yields relative to others in the industry, our empirical yield models are continuously updated with new information throughout the growing season based on:
- Growing conditions
- Crop development and health
- Weather readings and satellite imagery
As the season progresses from late June to early October, the models generate yield predictions as new data and information becomes available.
Analyzing FBN’s Success
In our latest report, FBN will continue to predict both U.S. corn and soybean yield ahead of USDA’s report. But we will also look at how FBN’s forecasts have historically presented low yield errors compared to other published predictions.
Unlock the Report
Find out more by signing up to become an FBN member and downloading the September 2022 U.S. Corn & Soybean Yield Forecasts Report.
By becoming an FBN member, you’ll join a global network of farmers — 43,000+ strong and growing — who are already taking advantage of the opportunity to reduce their production costs and maximize the value of their crops.
You’ll also have access to unique insight from experts in the latest FBN Research publication for free in the Reports section of the FBN app.
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