Above normal rainfall likely across the country in September

01 September 2021, New Delhi: Monthly rainfall across the country is likely to be 110% of the Above Normal Long Period Average (LPA) in September 2021. The above information was given by the Director General of the Indian Meteorological Department, Dr M Mahapatra in a virtual press conference today.

Dr Mohapatra said that the latest global model forecast indicates that the cold NSO conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean will continue, with negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during September, while the Central and East Equatorial Pacific Sea surface temperatures in the ocean are showing a cooling trend and the likelihood of a re-emergence of La Nia conditions at or after the end of the monsoon season has increased. The sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean are known to influence the Indian monsoon.

The average rainfall over the country as a whole in September 2021 is likely to be 110% of the above normal (long period average). In view of the above normal rainfall activity expected in the current month September, the current deficit of 9% in seasonal rainfall during June to August is less and the accumulated seasonal rainfall during 1st June to 30th September 2021 is likely to be around the lower end of normal. 

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Forecasts suggest that many areas of central India are likely to receive above normal to normal rainfall. Normal and below normal rainfall is very likely to occur over most of the North-West and North-East and most of the southern parts of peninsular India. The spatial distribution of probability forecasts for the tersil categories of above normal, normal and below normal for September rainfall is shown in Figure 1.

It may be mentioned that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has implemented a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonally operational forecasts for South West Monsoon rainfall across the country by modifying the existing two stage forecasting strategy. This new strategy is based on these existing statistical forecasting systems and the newly developed Multi Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCMS) from various Global Climate Prediction and Research Centers including IMD’s Monsoon Mission (CFS), MMCFS model. Based on this, the IMD has given the first phase of southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall on 16 April 2021, then 1 June with updates and then forecast for July and August rainfall distribution on 1 July and 2 August 2021. was issued.