Half the World’s Best Farmland for Key Crops Could Be Lost by 2100, Says FAO’s New Climate Mapping Tool
06 June 2025, Rome: A major climate warning has emerged from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). According to new data from its upgraded geospatial platform ABC-Map, globally important crops such as wheat, coffee, beans, cassava, and plantain could lose up to 50% of their most suitable farmland by the end of this century due to climate change.
This alarming insight comes as part of an enhanced climate suitability indicator added to FAO’s Adaptation, Biodiversity and Carbon Mapping Tool (ABC-Map)—a free, open-source geospatial application built on Google Earth Engine.
Climate Suitability for Crops Under Threat
The new indicator draws from recent research commissioned by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and funded by the French Development Agency (AFD). The study—“Have crops already reached peak suitability?”—conducted by French fintech firm Finres, explores future scenarios for crop suitability under changing climate patterns.
Findings reveal that five out of nine key global crops are already showing signs of losing optimal growing conditions. Coffee-growing regions, in particular, may see sharp declines in yield by 2100. Wheat and beans could face major losses across areas like North America and Europe. In contrast, maize and rice might benefit in the short term, but this advantage could reverse under high-emission scenarios later in the century.
“This is a crucial moment to rethink what, where, and how we grow our food,” said Martial Bernoux, FAO Senior Natural Resources Officer for Climate Change. “As climate risks increase, farmers and policymakers must make better-informed decisions. This upgraded ABC-Map is designed to help them assess risks and plan ahead for climate resilience.”
What ABC-Map Now Offers
ABC-Map was first launched in 2024 to support climate and agriculture planning under the COP28 Agriculture, Food and Climate National Action Toolkit. The tool allows users to input a location and select from 30 major crops—such as coffee, maize, and wheat. It then provides future crop suitability scores up to 2100 under two climate emission scenarios.
The tool now includes future projections for land suitability, adding depth to its previous features, which were focused on historical rainfall and temperature data. Two more indicators are scheduled for release later this year: one on livestock heat stress, and another on crop water requirements, including projected rainfall and irrigation needs.
A Tool for Governments and Planners
ABC-Map is not just a research tool—it’s designed to inform real-world decisions. It supports governments, agricultural planners, and project designers in evaluating trade-offs between climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and carbon reduction. With its enhanced capabilities, it is now even better equipped to help countries align with the goals of the Rio Conventions—on climate change, biodiversity, and desertification.
ABC-Map is a core part of the FAO’s broader vision to help countries build climate-smart agriculture systems, especially in the face of increasingly frequent droughts, floods, and heatwaves. The tool also played a key role in discussions at the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture in Berlin last year, during the launch of the FAST (Food and Agriculture for Sustainable Transformation) Partnership.
Also Read: Madhya Pradesh Farmers Await State Government’s Nod for Moong Procurement at MSP
📢 Reach Farmers, Share Your Story, and Grow Your Brand!
Got news to share? A company story to highlight? Looking to launch an impactful advertising campaign? Connect with us at info@krishakjagat.org or nimishgangrade@krishakjagat.org and make your mark!
📢 Connect with 100+ Million Farmers! India’s leading farmers rely on Krishak Jagat’s Hindi website for trusted agriculture news, advisory and insights. Click here to explore!
