Canadian wheat, canola stocks fall below expectations
09 September 2022, Canada: Canada’s wheat and canola stocks at the end of the 2021-22 marketing year fell sharply on the year amid poor harvest but also below earlier estimates despite weaker-than-expected exports, statistical agency Statistics Canada data show.
Canada’s wheat stocks stood at 3.67mn t on 31 July, down from 5.95mn t at the same time a year earlier. This was also more than 200,000t below average market estimates.
Lower stocks were primarily attributable to non-durum wheat reserves, which totalled 3.11mn t at the end of 2021-22. In comparison, governmental agency Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) last month pegged non-durum ending stocks at 3.2mn t.
In contrast, durum wheat stocks reached 565,000t, which was broadly in line with market expectations. That said, they were far below 813,000t the same time a year ago.
Meanwhile, canola ending stocks hit multi-year lows of 875,000t and were considerably below average market expectations of 1.13mn t. That said, both AAFC and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expected even lower stocks at 400,000t and 693,000t, respectively.
Stocks fell below market estimates despite a weak export performance. Canada’s wheat exports totalled 14.15mn t last year — 11.52mn t of which came from non-durum, compared with AAFC and USDA projections of 14.8mn t and 15mn t, respectively.
And canola shipments reached 5.11mn t last season, slightly below the 5.15mn t and 5.2mn t anticipated by AAFC and USDA, respectively.
Lower carryover stocks could weigh on Canada’s near-term shipment potential, as the 2022-23 harvest faces delays for both wheat and canola, suggesting weak exportable surplus availability well into late October. This was evidenced by sluggish wheat exports so far this marketing season, which totalled 803,000t for the non-durum variety on 1 July-28 August, down from 1.13mn t a year earlier, according to Canadian Grain Commission data.
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