CABI Distribution Database Used to Support Analysis of Plant Health Threats to Crops in Scotland
23 August 2024, Scotland: The CABI Distribution Database – which holds over a million geographic records of living organisms – has been used to support an analysis of plant health threats to arable and horticultural crops in Scotland.
Tim Beale, a Senior Data Analyst in the Data Science and Modelling team at CABI, contributed to the ‘Interdisciplinary Analysis of Plant Health Threats to Arable and Horticultural Crops in Scotland’ which includes pest risks such as the Colorado Potato Beetle (Liriomyza huidobrensis) and cotton bollworm moth (Helicoverpa armigera).
The report and policy document drew upon data from the CABI Distribution Database which serves data to the CABI Compendium and distribution maps for plant pests and plant diseases, the Horizon Scanning Tool, Pest Risk Analysis Tool, Plantwise Knowledge Bank Species Pages (Datasheets) and the Plantwise Knowledge Bank Diagnostic Tool.
Eight channels within the CABI Compendium cover Animal Health & Production, Aquaculture, Crop Protection, Food Safety & Quality, Forestry, Horticulture, Invasive Species and Seedborne Pests.
Since the beginning of 2023, over 600 new species have been included in the Distribution Database and 180,000 records added to this growing resource.
Emerging plant pests and diseases
Mr Beale said, “The CABI Distribution Database was used to identify emerging plant pests and diseases (PPD) by analysing nearly 172,000 distribution records of almost 9,500 PPDs across 480 geographical units.
“We first conducted an ecological assemblage analysis to identify which geographical regions shared the most PPD with Scotland, then applied a machine learning algorithm known as a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to estimate probabilities of invasion by PPDs currently absent from Scotland and the UK.”
The team then used global climate matching and crop distributions to estimate biophysical risk ratings for absent PPD, focussing on the most important arable and horticultural crops for Scotland in terms of area grown and economic contribution (barley, wheat, oats, oilseed rape and potato, plus soft fruit).
International imports of crop products and live plants into the UK were used to estimate the risk of arrival by trade, and international tourism data to estimate the risk of PPD arrival through travel.
Professor Dan Bebber, lead author of the report and policy document from the Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, said, “We worked with a diverse range of agricultural stakeholders (farmers, agronomists, crop breeders, scientists, policy advisors, regulatory bodies, and value chain actors) to develop plausible future scenarios for Scotland’s agriculture sector and consider how risks from PPD would differ among scenarios.
“Finally, we employed the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) model to investigate how a PPD of particular interest, Colorado Potato Beetle, might invade the UK under a range of different climate scenarios, focussing on the risk of establishment in Scotland following an initial invasion into southern England.”
Most likely to share emerging plant pests and diseases with Central Europe
In general, the analysis found that, other than immediate UK neighbours, Scotland is most likely to share PPD with Central Europe, though some regions of North America are also relatively similar. The PPD probability of presence in Scotland derived by the Self-Organising Map (SOM) model was greater for PPD listed in the DEFRA Plant Health Risk Register (PHRR), providing validation for the SOM approach.
Prof. Bebber added, “Our PoPS dynamic model showed that a successful invasion of Colorado Potato Beetle into southern UK is likely to spread to Scotland within decades, assisted by climate warming which accelerates development time and promotes adult dispersal.
“Colorado Potato Beetle could establish in Scotland under current climate conditions if directly introduced.”
Range of recommendations
The report and policy document highlighted a range of recommendations including the need for an active list of present and emerging PPD in Scotland and of PPD interceptions at Scottish ports to be maintained and published.
Other recommendations included PPDs flagged as being of high risk to Scotland should be prioritised for research into management and control methods.
Furthermore, diversifying crop production systems should be considered to increase resilience, including use of resistant crop varieties, intercropping, mixtures of landraces, diverse uncropped vegetation, and modifying or adapting crop rotations.
The report and policy document were commissioned by Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Plant Health funded by the Plant Health Centre of the Scottish Government through the Rural & Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division.
Stakeholder engagement exercises were undertaken by Dr Ali Karley and Dr Luz-Maria Lozada-Ellison of the James Hutton Institute.
Data is an integral part of the CABI Compendium, it drives the content of the tables and maps published in our datasheets and is used in our decision support tools and in other knowledge products.
This data can also be made available in other formats to support different types of analysis and use. If you would like to request access to the data behind the CABI Compendium, we would like to hear from you.
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